Week 6 Computer Poll Projection
The Harbin Computer Poll is used to select and seed Ohio high school football teams for post-season play. Teams are distributed among seven different championship divisions based on enrollment, with each division divided into four regions. In the largest division teams are assigned a value of 6.5, whereas in the smallest it is 3.5, with the values in the remaining divisions graduated between. Computer points are thereby earned through direct victories and through victories attained by defeated opponents. No points are awarded for losses. Currently, sixteen teams qualify for the playoffs in each region, with the Top 8 teams earning a home game in the first round. Top 4 teams can also earn a second home game with a first-round win.
Massillon is currently in 8th place in Division 2, Region 7, having compiled a record of 4-2. Not a great placement at this time for a team that traditionally leads the field. But it’s best to look at it from a full season perspective. Of course, this would involve predicting the winners of the remaining games. Fortunately, Drew Pasteur’s Ohio Fantastic 50 does a good job of this, as does Calpreps.com.
After meticulously calculating the numbers for all potential qualifiers, it appears that should the Tigers win their final four games they will finish in fifth place, behind Columbus Walnut Ridge, Big Walnut, Ashland and Teays Valley. Indeed, Harbin can pick the top teams, but it sure can’t seed them properly. Nevertheless, a 5th place finish earns just one home game. The next game would be at the home field of the No. 4 team, presuming they win their opening game, with the following two games on neutral fields, unless the OHSAA decides to add a third home game this year, which is the rumor.
The problem with Massillon’s placement stems not from their expected final winning percentage (.800) nor lack of high-level competition (Bergen Catholic, Canisius, Lakewood St. Edward and DeMatha Catholic), but from the opponents. And as long as Harbin fails to incorporate a strength-of-schedule component into their program, this problem will continue to exist. Regarding the opponents, here are the issues:
- Canton GlenOak – They will most likely finish with a 1-9 record, not too much different than taking a loss.
- Lakewood St. Edward – They have the potential to finish 5-5, with future games against Cincinnati Moeller and Akron Hoban. This was not as expected for the 3-team defending Division I state champions.
- Football North – They have been classified as Division IV. Therefore, every non-Ohio school they defeat is also classified as Division IV.
- Legacy School of Sports Science – Based on their enrollment, they will most likely be classified as Division V, as will all of their opponents.
- That leaves just Canisius, Warren Harding and Canton McKinley to provide the bulk of the points. The Tigers will receive an average of all points earned for the NFL Academy-London game.
So, based on the predicted results at this moment in time of all potential qualifiers, Massillon would host Perry in a first-round game. No. 4 Teays Valley is expected to defeat No. 13 Licking Heights and would therefore host the next game vs. the Tigers (assuming they lose in Week 9 to Pickerington Central; if they win, it would be Ashland). It should be noted that Teays Valley’s stadium seats a paltry 3,300 fans. In the third round Massillon could be matched up with Canal Winchester and in the fourth Big Walnut, both familiar opponents.
Stay tuned for more updates as the season winds down.
