What If Massillon Was Division I?

In 1972 the Ohio High School Athletic Association (OHSAA) introduced post-season playoffs to determine Ohio’s football state champions.  In order to incorporate some equity into the system the OHSAA distributed all of its member schools among several divisions based on school enrollment.  Initially, there were three divisions.  In 1980 it was changed to five.  Then, in 1994 it went to six.  And through all of those years Massillon remained as a Division 1 school, competing for the big-school state championship.  But in 2013 a seventh division was added in conjunction with reducing the number of schools assigned to Division I.  The combination of that modification along with a declining enrollment resulted in the Tigers dropping from Division I to Division II.

But, what if the enrollment hadn’t dropped?  Or, what if Massillon had opted to move up to Division I, something that is currently permitted?  What would the bracket look like then and how successful might the Tigers be in this year’s playoffs?

Massillon this year compiled 29.72 computer points, good enough for third place in Division II, Region 7.  But also good enough for second place in Division I, Region 1, behind Mentor.  Below is how the bracket would appear.  Note that the bracket is completed based on game predictions generated by Calpreps.com.

First up for Massillon is Medina, which has a record of 2-8.  An easy game to start.  Then comes an athletic Cleveland Heights team.  An entertaining game, but a one-sided win for the Tigers.  Round three would see a rematch with McKinley.  Consecutive win No. 10 would come a year earlier.  Finally, Massillon would have a rematch with St. Edward for the regional title.  Calpreps.com says the Tigers by a touchdown in this one.

The other regional winners are predicted by Calpreps.com to be Olentangy Liberty, Centerville and Cincinnati Moeller.   It is presumed that Centerville would be geographically matched up with Moeller, while Massillon would face Liberty.  Again, Calpreps.com selects as the state semifinal victors the Crusaders by a big score and the Tigers in a close one, thereby pitting the two teams against each other in the state finals.  Massillon played Moeller in a pre-season scrimmage fairly evenly.  Also, the Tigers beat St. Edward by ten points, whereas the Crusaders beat them by three.  What a tremendous game that would be.

Nevertheless, competing in Division I would surely bring more excitement to the regional games than the Massillon community currently experiences.  But, let’s just stay in Division II for awhile more.  For, it’s just as difficult to win that final game in DII as it is in DI and there’s a better chance of at least getting to that final game.

Breaking Down the Region 7 Playoff Bracket

Breaking Down the Region 7 Playoff Bracket

After ten grueling weeks of regular season football, it’s time to embark on another six games.  For, it’s playoff time.  Sixteen teams in Region will vie during the next four weeks for a coveted spot in the state final four and a chance to become the 2024 state champion.  Here’s a look at Division II, Region 7.

The chart shown below provides some limited background on each team, listed according to the bracket seeding position.

Win-Loss Records

Two teams fashioned undefeated 10-0 seasons: Columbus Walnut Ridge and Ashland.  A third, Massillon, won all of its games against in-state competition.  Big Walnut went 9-1, with a loss in the opener to unbeaten Columbus Watterson.  Conversely, the five teams at the bottom finished with losing records, including Logan at 1-9.

Offense

The highest scoring team is Ashland, with 36 points per game.  Behind them are Walnut Ridge at 34 and Big Walnut, Massillon and Columbus Briggs with 33.  Fourteen of the 16 teams averaged at least 20 points per game.  The only other teams that scored less than 20 are Perry at 18 and Logan at 6.  So, how did Logan even make the list?  Well, they have a win against Division V Nelsonville-York, which has a record of 8-2.

Defense

The team with the best scoring defense is Columbus Northland, with 9 points per game.  The next best are Walnut Ridge at 11, and Massillon and Columbus DeSales at 13 apiece.  Then there is Logan, at 31.  They are just above New Albany’s 27, Columbus St. Charles’ 25, Worthington Kilbourne’s 24 and Teays Valley’s 23.

Strength of Schedule (SOC)

This is where the better teams often rise to the top.  There is no question that Massillon played the strongest schedule, with the likes of Bergen Catholic, Lakewood St.  Edward, DeMatha Catholic and Canton McKinley.   Calpreps.com rated their strength of schedule at 41.0, well ahead of second-best New Albany at 24.5 and Perry at 22.2.  The teams with the worst SOC are of course the inner-city teams: Northland (-14.3), Walnut Ridge (-10.5) and Columbus Briggs (-10.2).

Ratings

Three different rating systems are shown in the chart: Harbin System, Calpreps.com and Drew Pasteur’s Fantastic 50.

Harbin – This system uses the various schools’ male enrollments in order to divide teams into seven different divisions.  Each division is comprised of four geographic regions, with each region conducting a regional tournament.  A school’s rating for playoff qualification purposes is determined by using the number of regular season wins and the number of wins their defeated opponents earn (with consideration of enrollment classification).

Calpreps.com – This system uses an iterative mathematical algorithm that rates every team in the country.  It involves using the margin of victory or defeat for each game plus the SOC rating to determine a team’s game performance rating.  For any win, the team receive credit for a margin of at least 15 (regardless of the actual margin), but not to exceed 30.  Likewise, for a loss, the credit also works in the opposite direction.  However, game performance ratings are not included in the algorithm when the predicted margin for that game exceeds 30, unless the actual margin is within 30 points.  The individual game performance ratings are then averaged to determine the final rating.

Pasteur  – This system has similarities to that of Calpreps.com, except that it only includes Ohio teams.

Seeding Teams in the Bracket

The Ohio High School Athletic Association uses the Harbin System to select and seed teams for the playoffs.  However, as pointed out numerous times in previous publications, the Harbin System is greatly flawed in that there is no consideration for SOC.  It may be an acceptable tool for determining the best 12 teams when 16 are selected, it is by no means capable of generating a proper seeding of those teams.  The drawback then is that several teams that would have earned a home game or two do not receive them.

When comparing the rankings of both Calpreps.com with Pasteur, one finds a 97% correlation between the two, which demonstrates credibility with an algorithm-based system.  However, when comparing Harbin with Calpreps.com, one finds a correlation of just 55%.  That is why up to a quarter of the higher seeded teams within the Top 3 divisions in last year’s playoffs lost in the first round.

This year, there are two inner-city teams in the Region 7 Top 8 (seeded 2nd and 8th), each having good records and scoring numbers, but with very poor SOCs. Plus, the consensus best team in the entire group, Massillon, is seeded third.

Round 1 Games

• 16 Logan at No. 1 Big Walnut – Easy win for Big Walnut
• 15 Worthington Kilbourne at No. 2 Columbus Walnut Ridge – Walnut Ridge by a touchdown
• 14 Licking Heights at No. 3 Massillon – Massillon; name the score
• 13 Columbus St. Charles at No. 4 Ashland – Big win for Ashland
• 12 New Albany at No. 5 Columbus DeSales – DeSales by a couple scores
• 11 Westerville South at No. 6 Canal Winchester – This one might be close
• 10 Columbus Briggs at No. 7 Teays Valley – To problem for Teays
• 9 Massillon Perry at No. 8 Columbus Northland – This one goes to the visitors by three scores

Week 7 Computer Poll Projection

Week 7 Computer Poll Projection

With three weeks to go in the regular season we are now in the home stretch.  A look at the current computer poll for Division II, Region 7 shows that the Top 7 teams have separated themselves from the remainder of the field.  And those seven teams should finish as a group, but not necessarily in the order they are at present.  While most of the remaining games for these teams have clear favorites identified, per Calpreps.com, there are still a couple of potentially close games that could affect the order.  Specifically, Big Walnut vs. Columbus Westland and Canal Winchester vs. Groveport Madison.

As it stands right now, barring upsets Massillon should find itself in the No. 3 position at the end.

Below is a detailed look at each of the seven teams, along with their win/loss records to date and the current Calpreps.com ratings (note: the ratings shown in parentheses are negative numbers):

Columbus Walnut Ridge (7-0) – 7.1

• Columbus Eastmoor (4-3) – (9.4)
• Columbus Briggs (4-3) – (5.2)
• Columbus Independence (3-4) – (18.7)

Opponent W/L record: 11-10; favorite in all remaining games; currently No. 2; should finish No. 1.

Big Walnut (6-1) – 29.6

• Westerville North (4-3) – 20.9
• Dublin Scioto (1-6) – (7.9)
• Columbus Westland (6-1) – 24.1

Opponent W/L record: 11-10; favorite in all remaining games; currently No. 1; should finish No. 2; however, a loss to Westland would drop them to No. 4.

Massillon (5-2) – 58.1

• Legacy School of Sport Sciences (3-3) – 30.9
• Warren Harding (5-2) – 24.7
• Canton McKinley (5-2) – 33.9

Opponent W/L record: 13-6; favorite in all remaining games; currently No. 7; should finish No. 2, benefiting from the win/loss records of the remaining opponents.

Ashland (7-0) – 24.0

• West Holmes (4-3) – 6.4
• Wooster (1-6) – (10.5)
• Lexington (4-3) – 5.6

Opponent W/L record: 9-12; favorite in all remaining games; currently No. 5; should finish No. 4.

Columbus DeSales (6-1) – 26.2

• KIPP Columbus (1-6) – (12.8)
• Cincinnati Northwest (1-6) – (17.6)
• Columbus Watterson (7-0) – 44.6

Opponent W/L record: 9-12; favorite in the next two games; underdog to Watterson; currently No. 3; should finish No. 5; a win over Watterson would move them ahead of Massillon to No. 3.

Teays Valley (5-2) – 18.5

• Newark (4-3) – 4.0
• Pickerington Central (5-2) – 29.9
• Logan (1-6) – (13.2)
• Opponent W/L record: 10-11; favorite in Weeks 8 and 10; underdog to Pickerington Central; currently No. 4; should finish No. 6.

 Canal Winchester (5-2) – 20.8

• Logan (1-6) – (13.2)
• Lancaster (3-4) – 0.0
• Groveport Madison (4-3) – 21.1
• Opponent W/L record: 8-13; favorite in the next two games; underdog to Groveport; currently No. 6; should finish No. 7; a win over Groveport would keep them at No. 7.

Week 6 Computer Poll Projection

Week 6 Computer Poll Projection

The Harbin Computer Poll is used to select and seed Ohio high school football teams for post-season play.  Teams are distributed among seven different championship divisions based on enrollment, with each division divided into four regions.  In the largest division teams are assigned a value of 6.5, whereas in the smallest it is 3.5, with the values in the remaining divisions graduated between.  Computer points are thereby earned through direct victories and through victories attained by defeated opponents.  No points are awarded for losses.  Currently, sixteen teams qualify for the playoffs in each region, with the Top 8 teams earning a home game in the first round.  Top 4 teams can also earn a second home game with a first-round win.

Massillon is currently in 8^th place in Division 2, Region 7, having compiled a record of 4-2.  Not a great placement at this time for a team that traditionally leads the field.  But it’s best to look at it from a full season perspective.  Of course, this would involve predicting the winners of the remaining games.  Fortunately, Drew Pasteur’s Ohio Fantastic 50 does a good job of this, as does Calpreps.com.

After meticulously calculating the numbers for all potential qualifiers, it appears that should the Tigers win their final four games they will finish in fifth place, behind Columbus Walnut Ridge, Big Walnut, Ashland and Teays Valley.  Indeed, Harbin can pick the top teams, but it sure can’t seed them properly.  Nevertheless, a 5th place finish earns just one home game.  The next game would be at the home field of the No. 4 team, presuming they win their opening game, with the following two games on neutral fields, unless the OHSAA decides to add a third home game this year, which is the rumor.

The problem with Massillon’s placement stems not from their expected final winning percentage (.800) nor lack of high-level competition (Bergen Catholic, Canisius, Lakewood St. Edward and DeMatha Catholic), but from the opponents.  And as long as Harbin fails to incorporate a strength-of-schedule component into their program, this problem will continue to exist.  Regarding the opponents, here are the issues:

• Canton GlenOak – They will most likely finish with a 1-9 record, not too much different than taking a loss.
• Lakewood St. Edward – They have the potential to finish 5-5, with future games against Cincinnati Moeller and Akron Hoban. This was not as expected for the 3-team defending Division I state champions.
• Football North – They have been classified as Division IV. Therefore, every non-Ohio school they defeat is also classified as Division IV.
• Legacy School of Sports Science – Based on their enrollment, they will most likely be classified as Division V, as will all of their opponents.
• That leaves just Canisius, Warren Harding and Canton McKinley to provide the bulk of the points. The Tigers will receive an average of all points earned for the NFL Academy-London game.

So, based on the predicted results at this moment in time of all potential qualifiers, Massillon would host Perry in a first-round game.  No. 4 Teays Valley is expected to defeat No. 13 Licking Heights and would therefore host the next game vs. the Tigers (assuming they lose in Week 9 to Pickerington Central; if they win, it would be Ashland).  It should be noted that Teays Valley’s stadium seats a paltry 3,300 fans.  In the third round Massillon could be matched up with Canal Winchester and in the fourth Big Walnut, both familiar opponents.

Stay tuned for more updates as the season winds down.

Massillon is Once Again the Odds-On Favorite to Win…

Massillon is Once Again the Odds-On Favorite to Win Region 7

The Ohio High School Athletic Association this year re-assigned several schools to various playoff regions based on changing enrollment and current competitive balance adders, with consideration for consolidating geographic locations.  While Region 7 gained a few and lost a few, there appears to be no impact on Massillon’s projection as the clear favorite to once again win out in the region and advance to the state playoffs.  That is based on the Tigers having won last year’s Division II state title, having defeated the Division I champion in the regular season for the second consecutive year, winning four of the last five regional titles and returning a wealth of talent on both sides of the ball.  They also last year outscored their four regional opponents, 157-25.

The Makeup of Region 7

Seven teams have vacated the region from last year, including local schools Green, Lake and North Canton, which have been reassigned to Region 5, and Columbus-area schools Grove City Central Crossing, Watkins Memorial, Columbus Independence and Columbus West.  Taking their places are New Albany and Westerville Central from Division I and Ashland and Columbus Whitehall from Division III.  The region, which is comprised of 25 playoff participants, is heavily laden with teams from Columbus proper, while there are just three from the local area: Massillon, Perry and Wooster.

Regional Powers

The chart below shows the regional playoff performances over the past five years of all the teams in this year’s Region 7.  Massillon clearly stands out above the rest, with four regional titles and 19 playoff wins through inter-regional play.  Behind the Tigers are New Albany, Big Walnut and Columbus DeSales, followed by Canal Winchester and Westerville South.  The remaining teams have had little success in this span time and fall away from those mentioned above.

Note 1: In 2019 only eight teams qualified for the playoffs; there have been at least sixteen since.  So, in order to balance the data across the five years in the chart, the next eight regional placers in 2019 were recognized as having playoff appearances.

Note 2: First round play-in games during the 2020 Covid year are not included in the data.

New Albany – The Eagles have returned to the region having spent the last four years in Division I.  Their best year there came in 2022 when they ranked third in their region with a 7-3 record and went on to defeat Westerville North, Hilliard Davidson and Upper Arlington in the playoffs, before losing to Gahanna Lincoln.  Last year, they beat Westerville Central, but lost to Pickerington Central, 42-16.  In 2017 they lost 24-6 to Massillon in the Division II regional finals.

Big Walnut – The Golden Eagles have played ten playoff games over the past five year and have achieved modest success.  In 2022 they finished first in the regional rankings and commenced the playoffs with wins over Olentangy and Canal Winchester.  But in the third round they lost to Massillon, 42-21.

Columbus DeSales – The Stallions had a great year in 2020, although it occurred in Division III.  During that Covid year they finished the regular season with a 5-1 record, with the lone loss coming at the hands of Columbus Watterson.  Once in the playoffs, the ran off five straight wins before falling in double overtime to Chardon in the state finals.

Canal Winchester – The Indians have been a regular in the playoffs, but have never reached the regional finals.  Last year they managed to win a couple of playoff games, but fell 10-0 to Green.   In 2022 they faced Massillon in Round 2 and lost 23-0.

Westerville South – The Wildcats are a hit and miss in regards to qualifying for the playoffs.  Twice previously they faced the Tigers.  In 2021 they lost 50-19 and last year they lost 50-7.

Aside from those teams and possibly newcomer Westerville Central, there is not a lot of competition for the Tigers.  Approximately half of the teams in the region have not won a playoff game in the past five years.  And six did not even qualify, although three of them are Columbus City schools.  So, the bottom line is that if Massillon takes care of business, they should be considered the favorite in a head-to-head matchup against any other team in the region.

State Powers

The chart below lists the better Division II teams in the state based on playoff performance.  But when it comes to annually having a realistic chance to win a state title, just three teams at this moment rise to the top: Akron Hoban, Massillon and Avon.  Toledo Central Catholic, the 2022 champion, would have been included in this group, but they were downgraded to Division III a year ago.  Also, there appears to be a level of parity within the top group in that no team has won more than a single title in the past five years.

Akron Hoban – The Knights have an outstanding program and are annually considered as the team to beat in Division II.  However, it hasn’t always played out as expected over the past five years.  In 2020 they defeated Massillon in the finals to win the title, but since that time have come up short in state finals games, losing to Cincinnati Winton Woods, Toledo Central and Massillon.  In addition, they lost to Massillon in the 2019 regional finals.  But they have at least advanced to the state finals in four of the five years.  Their primary competitors are Hudson and Walsh Jesuit.

Massillon – The Tigers captured the crown last year with a 7-2 victory over Hoban, bolstered by a tremendous defensive performance.  It was their first title since 1970, having lost in the state finals in six previous attempts, and now claim 25 titles.  They also have more regional championships than any other large public school.  And they have reached the state finals in three of the five years.

Avon – The Eagles appear to be always the bridesmaid, but never the bride.  Although they have captured four regional titles in the last five years, they have never advanced to the state finals in Division II since the regional modifications occurred in 2013.  Three times they lost to Hoban in the state semifinals and Massillon defeated them 35-10 in the 2019 semis.  Also, their lone regional finals loss was to Toledo Central, which went on to take the crown that year.  But don’t count them out.  They always have a formidable team with great coaching.  Their primary competitors are Highland and Olmsted Falls.

Also of note is that Cincinnati Winton Woods, winner of the state title in 2021, has been moved up to Division I on account of an increased competitive advantage adder.

Wrapping up, look for Akron Hoban in Region 5, Avon in Region 6 and Massillon Region 7 to once again advance to the state semifinals.  Region 8 may be up for grabs.  But if any team stands out there it is probably Cincinnati Anderson, as they return stellar quarterback Justice Burnam.  But the Raptors will need to figure out how to climb the hill, based on their 55-7 state semifinal blowout loss to the Tigers last year.  Also keep an eye on Cincinnati LaSalle and Kings.

Will Top Defensive Performances Translate into State Championships?

Will Top Defensive Performances Translate into State Championships?

There’s an old adage in football that goes: Offense wins games, but defense wins championships.  So does one need to look no further than the teams with the great defenses in order to predict the eventual winners?  Maybe it’s as simple as that.  But maybe it’s not.  For, there is still a slew of teams with good records that have their goals set on taking home a state crown.

In the top two divisions there are 45 teams that have compiled records of 6-2 or better.  But, only about a third of them have given up two touchdowns or less per game, in spite of most possessing high-scoring offenses.  Here’s a look at the ones with the good scoring defenses.

Division 1 – Six of the 23 top teams in this division have good defensive numbers.  They are:

• Lakewood St. Edward (7-1) – Average score, 33-13. Lost to Massillon (8-0).  Wins over Center Grove, IN (7-1) and Good Counsel, MD (5-1).  Finishes with Cincinnati Moeller (5-3) and Akron Hoban (8-0).
• Gahanna Lincoln (8-0) – Average score, 34-9. No big wins recorded.  Plays Pickerington North (8-0) in Week 10.
• Cincinnati Princeton (8-0) – Average score, 28-10. Wins over Lakota West (6-2) and Hamilton (6-2).  No challengers remain.
• Westerville North (6-2) – Average score, 26-13. Lost to Westerville South (4-4) and Canal Winchester (8-0).  No challengers remain.
• Centerville (7-1) – Average score, 24-13. Lost to Dublin Coffman (6-2).  Win over Miamisburg (6-2).  Plays Huber Heights Wayne (6-2) in Week 10.
• Hamilton (6-2) – Average score, 22-13. Lost to Hamilton Badin (8-0) and Cincinnati Princeton (8-0).  No big wins.  Plays Lakota West (6-2) in Week 10.

Division 2 – Eight of the 22 top teams in this division have good defensive numbers.  They are:

• Troy (7-1) – Average score, 35-4. Lost to Tippecanoe (6-2).  Win over Vandalia Butler (6-2).  No challengers remain.
• Akron Hoban (7-0) – Average score, 40-7. Wins over Walsh Jesuit (7-1) and Cleveland Glenville (5-3).  Plays Lakewood St. Edward (7-1) in Week 10.
• Cincinnati Winton Woods (6-2) – Average score, 23-7. Lost to Cincinnati Anderson (7-1) and Milford (8-0). Win over Trotwood-Madison (7-2).  No challengers remain.
• Avon (8-0) – Average score, 40-8. Wins over Canton McKinley (7-1), Cleveland Glenville (5-3) and Olmsted Falls (6-2).  Plays Avon Lake (6-2) in Week 10.
• Massillon (8-0) – Average score, 40-9. Wins over Valdosta, GA (5-2), Mansfield (6-2), Lakewood St. Edward (7-1), Middletown, DE (4-1) and St. John’s College, DC (3-3).  Plays Canton McKinley (7-1) in Week 10.
• Canal Winchester (8-0) – Average score, 33-9. Win over Westerville North (6-2).  Plays Delaware Hayes (7-1) in Week 9.
• Medina Highland (7-1) – Average score, 43-13. Win over Hudson (6-2).  Plays Aurora (7-1) in Week 10.
• Uniontown Lake (6-2) – Average Score, 23-13. Lost to Alliance (4-4) and Canton McKinley (7-1).  Plays Green (5-3) in Week 10.

Will the eventual state champions come from these groups and thereby prove out the adage or will strong offenses rule the roost?  We’ll know the answer in another eight weeks.

Massillon Will Once Again Compete in Playoff Region 7

Massillon Will Once Again Compete in Playoff Region 7

The 2023 season opens on August 18 with 104 Division 2 teams competing for the ultimate prize: a state championship.  But first they need to qualify for one of the sixteen spots available in each of the four regions in order to at least have a shot.  Then, the eventual winner needs to win six consecutive games to survive the field and be crowned the new champion.

How the playoff landscape has changed over the years.  A wise man once said that there is nothing so certain as change.  And that is ever so true for Ohio high school football.  There was a time long ago that teams had up to four weeks and three scrimmages to prepare for a 10-game season, with the opening games scheduled for the Friday after Labor Day.  Now, the season starts before the corn is even ready to pick, with one less scrimmage and considerably less preseason prep time.  And all for the sake of adding additional rounds of playoff games, which is a format that most coaches don’t necessarily support.  But money talks.

Here’s a look back at the various changes that have occurred to the playoff system over years:

• 1972 – State playoffs were introduced. 3 divisions with 4 teams per region.
• 1980 – 5 divisions with 2 teams per region.
• 1985 – 5 divisions with 4 teams per region.
• 1994 – 6 divisions with 4 teams per region.
• 1999 – 6 divisions with 8 teams per region.
• 2013 – 7 divisions with 8 teams per region. Division 1 reduced to 75 teams.
• 2020 – Covid. 7 divisions with every team invited to participate.
• 2021 – 7 divisions with 16 teams per region.
• Given the domination of the parochial schools in the playoffs, open enrollment was introduced, permitting students from outside a school district to enroll and participate in sports. It was believed to be a way to even the slate between the public and parochial schools.  Unfortunately, restrictions were put in place later that restricted the ability of a student to play a full season; i.e., a requirement to sit out the second half of the season plus playoffs during the first year of participation.
• Later, as a compromise to separating the playoffs between public and parochial schools, a system of competitive advantage was introduced, which is designed to move schools up a division or two based on their geographic reach for student athletes. This mostly impacted parochial schools, as was anticipated.  It appears to have worked well in the lower divisions, but in Divisions 1 and 2, wherein 80% of Ohio students are enrolled, it had no positive effects.  No Division 2 team moved up to Division 1, while some very good teams in Divisions 3 and 4 moved up into Division 2.

Looking back, Massillon was initially a Division 1 team and a pretty competitive one at that, performing well against the best teams in the state.  Through 41 years they captured more regional championships than nearly any other team in the division and three times they advanced to the state championship game.  But they were caught up in the 2013 restructuring on account of decreasing enrollment and were thus moved down to Division 2.  Clearly, the competition in D2 is less than that of D1 for a team like Massillon, but there are still a few formidable teams to be concerned about, including Akron Hoban, Cincinnati LaSalle, Cincinnati Winton Woods and Avon.

During the first two years in Division 2, the Tigers were assigned to the Toledo region.  That changed in 2015 when they were transferred to the Columbus region.  There, Massillon has stayed, except for 2019 when they were assigned to the Cleveland region.  Massillon this year is once again in Region 7, a group comprised of 28 teams.  Twenty are from the Columbus area, six are from the Stark County area and two are located in remote parts of the state.

Most of the teams in Region 7 have returned this year.  But there was one change in that Dover moved down to Division 3 and Grove City Central Crossing moved into the region from Division 1.

Traditionally, those teams that placed in the Top 8 of the standings following the regular season have had the best shots at winning the region.  So, let’s assume that the Region 7 participants had been in place over each of the past five years and evaluate their overall performances.  Here are the results:

• Finished in the Top 8 all five times – Massillon.
• Finished in the Top 8 four times – Westerville South, North Canton and Columbus DeSales.
• Finished in the Top 8 three times – Perry, Dublin Scioto and Wooster.
• Finished in the Top 8 two times – Big Walnut, Canal Winchester, Green, Teays Valley and Columbus Walnut Ridge.
• Finished in the Top 8 one time – Watkins Memorial, Columbus Independence and Columbus Northland.
• Never finished in the Top 8 – Twelve teams.
• Top five average computer points per year over the 5-year span – Massillon (32.1), Westerville South (23.0), Columbus DeSales (20.0), North Canton (19.5) and Big Walnut (16.6).
• Top win-loss records in the playoffs – Massillon (20-5), Columbus DeSales (7-4), Big Walnut (5-3), Perry (4-3), Lake (4-3) and Green (4-3).

Having qualified for the playoffs, the next measure of performance is the playoff games themselves.  Below is a performance breakdown covering the past ten years for the current teams in Region 7:

• Massillon – 5 championships. 1 runner-up.
• Perry – 2 championships. 1 runner-up.
• Green – 1 championship.
• Lake – 1 runner-up.
• Dublin Scioto – 1 runner-up.
• Worthington Kilbourne – 1 runner-up.

As expected, the Tigers have achieved some very good success during the ten years following the reassignment.  In nine out of ten years they qualified for the playoffs.  Five times they advanced to the state semifinals after winning the region.  And three times they played in the state finals.

So, since the restructuring of the divisions, few teams in the current Region 7 have consistently been in position to effectively compete for a regional title.  And even less, six out of 28, have ever experienced a regional championship game.  But let’s face it.  Based on the above data, the bottom line is that it’s annually Massillon’s region to lose.  And in most years they ARE the team to beat.  Nevertheless, you still need to play the games.  And those other teams want to win, too.

Statewide, if one was to predict the Division 2 final four, they would probably come up with these teams:

• Region 5 – Akron Hoban (Austintown Fitch, Hudson and Walsh Jesuit contending)
• Region 6 – Avon (Avon Lake, Medina Highland and North Olmsted contending)
• Region 7 – Massillon (Lake and North Canton Contending)
• Region 8 – Cincinnati Woods or Kings (Cincinnati Withrow contending)

Here are the Division 2 state champions since the realignment:

• 2013 – Loveland defeated Cleveland Glenville
• 2014 – Cincinnati LaSalle defeated Nordonia
• 2015 – Cincinnati LaSalle defeated Perry
• 2016 – Cincinnati LaSalle defeated Perry
• 2017 – Akron Hoban defeated Cincinnati Winton Woods
• 2018 – Akron Hoban defeated Massillon
• 2019 – Cincinnati LaSalle defeated Massillon
• 2020 – Akron Hoban defeated Massillon
• 2021 – Cincinnati Winton Woods defeated Akron Hoban
• 2022 – Toledo Central Catholic defeated Akron Hoban