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Rating the 2024 Massillon Football Team

The 2024 Massillon football team, which finished with a record of 11-3, will be remembered as one that performed at a high level, in spite of playing an extremely difficult schedule.  Included were teams such as Bergen Catholic (NJ), Canisius (NY), Lakewood St. Edward, DeMatha (MD) and Canton McKinley.  But how does it stack up against the teams of the past ten years, corresponding to the tenure of the very successful Tiger Head Coach Nate Moore.  Under Moore, Massillon has enjoyed great success, as detailed below:

  • Won 82% of games, with only one losing season, that coming in Moore’s first year; averaged 30 or more points per game in nine of ten years; four times ranked nationally in the Top 100.
  • Holds a 9-1 record against arch-rival Canton McKinley.
  • Qualified for the Division II playoffs nine times; won 32 of 40 playoff games; captured four regional championships; appeared in the state finals four times; won a state championship in 2023.
  • Maintained a winning program, in spite of significantly elevating the strength of schedule.

A detailed data analysis was performed to rate the performance of the 2023 team against the other nine teams.  The analysis studied four statistics for which teams have control over, including yards per rush, pass efficiency, penalty yards per game and turnovers per game.  These are referred to as control statistics.  Also studied are four additional statistics, which are the end results of the control stats.  These include performance rating, yards per play, punts per game and 3rd down efficiency.  Of course, the analysis would be remiss if it didn’t also review strength of schedule, season record and scoring.

The following are the results of the 2024 season analysis:

The Season Overall

  • Strength of Schedule – High Rating – Each year this author rates the schedule using a point system in that a major power is worth three points, a playoff public school or mid-sized private two points, a non-playoff public school one point and a non-competitor zero.  This year’s team had a strength of schedule rating of 22, which is the highest measurement of any team over the last ten years, and perhaps all-time.  Close behind are the 2020 and 2022 teams, each with a rating of 20.  The average over the ten-year period is 18.  Certainly, some consideration of this high rating must be respected by the readers of this story when reviewing the discussion that follows.
  • Season Record – Medium Rating – Massillon ranks 5th with an 11-3 record, against an average of 11.0 wins and 2.5 losses.
  • Scoring – Medium-High Rating – The offensive scoring is rated medium and ranks 7th at 33 points per game, against an average of 35. The defensive scoring is rated high and ranks 2nd at 12 points per game, against an average of 17.  The point differential of the offense and defense ranks 4th at 21 points, against an average of 18.

The Offense

Control Statistics

  • Yards per rush – High rating – Ranks 2nd at 6.3 yards per rush, against an average of 5.3.  It is also ranked 7th all-time and 2nd among spread offense teams, behind the 2023 team’s 6.6.  Leading the rushing effort was the speedy Ja’Meir Gamble, who averaged a whopping 8.7 yards per carry.
  • Pass efficiency – Medium rating– Ranks 6th at 150, against an average of 154.  However, the team did have its moments with efficiency ratings of 293 against Football North and 269 against Teays Valley, contributed mostly by quarterback Jalen Slaughter and a host of high-level receivers.  The 2019 team with quarterback Aidan Longwell produced the best mark, of 185.
  • Turnovers per game – High rating – Ranks 2nd at 1.0, against an average of 1.4.  The 2017 team leads the group with 0.9 per game.
  • Penalty yards per game – Low rating – Ranks 10th at 101 yards per game, against an average of 69. In fact, this is the highest value in the last 25 years.  Ironically, the second highest mark was produced by last year’s team, which recorded 81 penalty yards per game.  It is possible that the high mark influenced the number of punts per game and the 3rd down proficiency, as shown in the following statistics.  But it should also be noted that in the vast majority of the big Massillon games over the ten-year study period the number of penalties per game had little influence on the final outcome.

Impact Statistics

  • Performance rating – High rating – The performance rating measures a team’s ability to “move the sticks.”  In other words, it measures the success rate of team achieving a first down (or touchdown) after beginning with a first down.  Ranks 3rd at 85%, against an average of 82.5%.  It also ranks third among all Massillon spread offense teams.
  • Yards per play – High rating – Ranks 4th at 7.2 yards per play, against an average of 6.5.  The rushing attack certainly had the most influence over this mark.
  • Punts per game – Low rating – Ranks 9th at 3.5 punts per game, against an average of 2.8.
  • 3rd down efficiency – Low rating – Ranks 10th at 37%, against an average of 45%.  The 9th place team is 2020 at 40%.  Perhaps this stat is a bit over-emphasized, given that the 2020 team ended up in the playoff state finals.

The Defense

Control Statistics

  • Yards per rush – High rating – Ranks 2nd at 2.8 yards per rush, against an average of 3.6. This success was achieved in spite of the team returning few starters on that side of the ball.  Nevertheless, the defensive front-7, led by Michael Moore Jr., and run support provided by safety Tyler Hackenbracht, became the strength of the team.  The 2023 team is tops with 1.7 yards per rush.
  • Pass efficiency – Medium rating – Ranks 5th at 106, against an average of 108.
  • Turnovers per game – Low rating – Ranks 9th at 1.3 per game, against an average of 1.6.

Impact Statistics

  • Performance rating – High rating – Ranks 2nd at 56%, against an average of 63%.  The 2024 team is slightly better than the 2023 team, coming in at 54%.  Among all spread offense teams, the 2024 squad ranks third, while the 2002 team is second at 52%.
  • Yards per play – High rating – Ranks 2nd at 3.9, against an average of 4.7.  The 2023 team leads the field, at 3.5.
  • Punts per game – Medium rating – Ranks 4th at 4.9, against an average of 4.4.
  • 3rd down efficiency – High rating – Ranks 2nd at 26%, against an average of 30%.  The 2023 team comes in at 22%.

Summary

The statistics of the 2024 team were ranked against all of Nate Moore’s squads, covering a span of ten years.  Overall, the 2024 team receives a high mark, based on a 30% differential between offensive and defensive performance ratings.  That comes in spite of the team playing what is perhaps the most difficult schedule ever in Massillon’s long history.  The 30% mark is also the second highest among all spread offense teams (1998-2024), and just behind the 35% differential posted by the 2023 team.

The offense ranks medium-high on the basis of a high rating for the rushing attack and medium rating for the passing game.  But it also receives low marks for penalty yards, punts per game and 3rd down efficiency.  The defense ranks high, with high marks for the rushing attack and a medium rating for pass efficiency.  Most of the statistics measured ranked second, just behind the outstanding 2023 team’s defense.

So, how do all of the teams stack up?  The best way to figure this may be to jointly consider the following statistics, while weighting each one equally:

  • Season record – Because, in spite of all the stats, you still need to win the game.
  • Strength of schedule – It certainly impacts any game statistic.
  • Offensive performance – The best measurement of a team’s proficiency.
  • Defensive performance – Ditto.

In spite of what may have happened in the playoffs, here are how the teams rank, based on their performances over the entire season:

dengelhardt

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